Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL) delivered strong returns in 2019 and 2020 and Q1 2021. At its height, at the end of January 2021, Apple stock price had risen by 208%, YoY and 8% YTD. Then the situation started to change with increasing market volatility and other dynamics. From the high in Jan 2019 to the low level in early March 10, 2021, Apple stock price has declined by 16%. A huge drop for such a prominent stock. AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the Machine Learning Time Series capabilities, including Support Vector Machine, and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™, has looked at the trends of the stock price of AAPL vs other the stock prices 11 selected companies in 2020 and 2021Q1and came up with insights and projections on the dynamics. The insights are presented below (for disclaimer and terms, check AroniSoft website)
A little bit of the usual investment research before coming back to AroniSmart™'s findings.
Apple Momentum
Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL) has consistenly delivered strong returns since 2017. In the period following the deep analysis of AAPL stock by AroniSmart team in November 2017 (see: AroniSmart: AroniSmartInvest In Action: Apple Stock Shoots Up Following Solid Financial Results and iPhone X Launch), Apple stock has increased by more than 240%. In 2020, AroniSmartInvest™ Sentiment Analysis has shown that Apple's momentum was been fueled by new products and solutions (see: AroniSmart Tech News here and Apple's WWDC 2020: Apple Silicon, iOS 14, iPadOS 14, App Clips, macOS 11.0 and see: AroniSmartIntelligence™ in Action: Market Sentiment and Key Stocks in May 2020); AroniSmartIntelligence™ in Action: Apple and Tesla Stocks Hit Highs and Lows; What May Come Next?) Since the deep analysis of July 2020, Apple stock has increased by 27%, with at some point, reaching 50% (see: AroniSmartIntelligence™ in Action: Apple (AAPL) Stock Performance Support Vector Machine and DominanceAnalysis).
Apple stock dynamics appear to be impacted by several factors, beyond those affecting the overal market, such as COVID-19 pandemic and the last US general elections. The factors impacting the performance appear to be: dynamics within the TECH sectors in general, Apple's 5G innovation, rumors about Apple investment in EV, US interest rates, Bonds, and commodities markets, Stimulus.
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New Products at Apple
Since 2017, Apple has heavily invested in new technologies and products, including new chips and 5G.
On March 25, 2019 Apple kicked off "It's show time" event at the Steve Jobs Theater on the company's Apple Park campus. During the events, 4 major offerings were unveiled: Apple tv+, Apple News+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card.
In the week of June 3, 2019 Apple unveiled major technologies and offerings, including a new Mac Pro, a new version of MacOS named Catalina, Catalyst, to improve portability of apps between Mac OS and iOS, iOS13 version, and iPadOS.
During “By Innovation Only” event held at Steve Jobs Theater on Sep 10, 2019 Apple introduced the iPhone 11, 11 Pro, and 11 Pro Max, as well as the Apple Watch Series 5. The three new iPhones included the high-end flagship iPhone 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max with Triple-Lens Rear Cameras. iPhone 11 comes with Dual-Lens Rear Camera, Dolby Atmos sound, a faster A13 Bionic chip, and six New Color
In the week of June 22, 2020 Apple kicked off its annual developers' conference, WWDC 2020, at the Steve Jobs Theater on the company's Apple Park campus. Unlike the prior years, this year's WWDC was without a live audience. During the event, major technologies and offerings were unveiled, including Apple Silicon, iOS 14, iPadOS 14, App Clips, watchOS 7, tvOS and macOS 11.0.
Beyond A15 chip, a faster system-on-a-chip in the next iPhones, Apple has been driving the adoption of 5G technoolgies in all its iPhones. In February 2021, iPhone 12 Pro Max was named the most popular 5G smartphone in the United States of America. In the USA, iPhone 12 models feature ultra-fast mmWave 5G in the US. It is belived that the upcoming iPhone 13 models could expand mmWave into most countries.
In December 2020, media reports confirmed that Apple was working on EV and targeting 2024 for production, with a more advanced battery technology. Independent EV remains a distant reality for Apple, but there are also rumors that Apple may partner with a car maker to accelerate the timelines.
Based on all these factors, over the last years and querters, AAPL has consistently outperformed several technology companies and other stocks. Then in early January 2021, Apple, as many TECH stocks accelarated their upward momentum. The momentum was halted in early February 2021.
AroniSmart™ team analyzed Apple's stock performance dynamics, leveraging the Support Vector Machine and Dominance Analysis capabilities of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered interesting insights, as shown below. The team analyzed the performance of AAPL vs 13 other internally selected stocks from March 2020 to March 2021.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ Analysis: Apple continued to exhibit behaviors similar to those of several stocks, but not the same
Based on the analysis, it was found that most of these stocks basically follow similar trends. Also, they are all impacted by the market conditions. However, the analysis found important nuances.
The key findings started with a positive view: most of the stocks studied had an upward momentum over the period. However, like the general stock market, they faced a slowdown and high volatility in Q1-Q2 2020 before starting a bounce back. Trendwise, since May 2020, the stocks started on a catching up journey, reaching the previous price levels. The upward moementume accelerated in Q4 2020 and early Jan 2021.
Figure 1: Key Stocks Price Trends in Q1 2021 -- Training Data model.
Figure 2: Key Stocks Price Trends in Q1 2021 -- Test Data model.
Over 2020 Apple (AAPL) appears to build a momentum similar to that of most of the stocks under the AroniSmart study. However, in Q1 2021, the upside of Apple appears not to align with the prices of GOOGL, BAC, HD, LOW, AMD, and TSLA.
By July of 2020 most stocks were basically back to or above the early Q1 2020 levels. In Q1 2020, Apple's momentum was significantly impacted by the market conditions, but in late May 2020, it bounced back (see chart below). Since then, the Apple stock has maintained the momentum... until February 2021.
Figure 3: Key Stocks Price Trends since March 2020 -- Test Data model estimates
Figure 4: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Between March 2020 and December 2020
Figure 4: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Between December 2020 and March 2021
AroniSmartIntelligence™ modelling shows the prices of the stocks that appear to mirror each other: a high opening for the stocks that tends to lead a decline or slow down in Apple's closing price and a high opening for the stocks that tends to lead an increase or growth in Apple's closing price. Q2 2020-Q4 2020 and Jan 2021 dynamics appear to positively impact Apple's prices, whereas Q1 has been challenging, since early February 2021.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ analysis, using Support Vector Machine modelling, below shows the weights of the different stocks, with AMD, HD, and LOW being on the negative side, TSLA, TWTR, CVX, BAC, GOOG on neutral side, and WDC, TGT, and FB on the positive side.
Figure 5: Apple Stock Price Dynamics - AroniSmart Support Vector Machine Analysis Results on the Period Between March 2020 and March 2021
AroniSmartLytics™ Dominance Analysis confirms Support Vector Machine results: Apple momentum impacted in 2021 and not aligned with the momentum of most of other stocks.
AroniSmart™ team analyzed Apple's performance dynamics using Dominance Analysis capabilities of AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered insights confirming the performance dynamics of AAPL vs 11 other internally selected stocks from March 2020 to March 2021. See below:
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
For more on AroniSmartIntelligence and AroniSmartInvest capabilities, visit AroniSoft web site by clicking here. AroniSmartInvest™ and AroniSmartIntelligence ™ are available on Apple's App Store.
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