In Q2 2024, Stocks across industries have continued to experience, yet an unprecedented upward momentum. The momentum built on the dynamics of Q1 2024. Hence, the market has continued to reinforce the foundation of Q4 2023, which overtook the challenges at the end of Q3 2023, when all the key market indices, excluding Crude Oil (CL=F) and 10-Yr Bond (^TNX), declined from the top reached in late July 2023. By mid Q2 2024, the gains observed in Q1 2024 continued to increase. The positive momentum appears to continue to be driven by the diminishing challenges, which led to the stocks and indices pushing through Q1 2024 with a significant improvement in performance. Hence, since Q4 2023, the stock market adjusted to the previous dynamics that have been leading to increasing market volatility, including inflation, world events, and other challenges that started in late Q2 2022 and in October 2023. The US elections in 2024 continue to have a limited impact on the dynamics. Hence, the performance and factors from the end of year 2024 remain the main drivers. On March 25, 2024, AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the NLP, Text and Sentiment Analysis, Machine Learning Econometrics and Time Series capabilities and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartInvest ™ and AroniSmartIntelligence™, looked at the stock markets news and trends.
The period of Q4 2023 - Q1 2024 was marked by strong resilience and ended with records performance, after a period with complex dynamics and given the current market factors, including the wars around the World, the US political situation, inflation and interest rates, and earnings seasons.
The stock market has experienced an upward momentum until the last week of Q1 2024. However, starting with the first week of Q2 2024, there were some unexpected world challenges with potential impact on Oil prices, technology, inflation, consumer confidence, and the projections following the earnings reports. These challenges impacted all the stock indices. Then, starting with May 2024, the stocks rebounded and almost all indices were fueled, reaching new records by mid May 2024.
Hence, trend-wise, since Jan 2024 and pushing through mid Q2 2024, the indices, although experiencing seesaw periods, have maintained their growth, with upward trends. Their performances are as follows Year-to-Date (YTD) and since the end of March 2024 as of May 16, 2024:
- NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC): 13.09% and 1.95%;
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI): 5.71% and 0.16%;
- S&P 500 (^GSPC): 11.69% and 0.81%;
- Crude Oil index (CL=F): 12.57%and -4.74%;
- Russell 2000 (^RUT): 16.13% and 2.94%;
- Gold Dec 23 (GC=F): 15.29% and 7.33%;
- Silver Dec 23 (SI=F): 25.03% and 19.64%;
- CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX): 12.64% and 4.07%;
- Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index: 5.71% and 0.16%;
Since the beginning of January 2024, the performance among the market indices has been overall significantly rising, with Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) by 5.71%, Nasdaq (^IXIC) by 13.26%, S&P 500 (^GSPC) by 11.36% , and the Russel 2000 (^RUT) by 16.13%.
At the beginning of Q1 2024 the inflation seemed to be receding, the job market looked like slowing down, and the fears of recession focused on a slow soft landing. Hence, the expectations of the Federal Reserve ending the rate hikes and moving to cutting the rates were very high. The interest rate cuts were expected to sustain the stability of the market, as companies seemed ready to cut the costs of borrowing and to sustain profitability. However, the inflation upward trend has remained and the job market has maintained its strength, which led to the challenges observed in April 2024. However, the market recovered with stagnant, although still strong job market and the expectations for the Federal Reserve to not raise interest rates, but rather leaning towards cutting the rates in early Q4 2024 at the latest.
In fact, at the beginning of the year, it was expected that the first interest cuts would come in the Apr/May 30-1 meeting.
As planned the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings will be held on June 11-12, 2024 and July 30-31, 2024. The June 11-12, 2024 meeting is one of the key dates that investors, economists, and policymakers mark on their calendars. Many experts still expect the Fed to hold rates steady at a target of 5.25%-5.50%, as the Fed still waits for inflation to ease a bit more. Hence, based on the reports and statements from the meetings over Q1-Q2 2024 so far, the timelines for the interest cuts have been pushed well further, most likely in Q4 2024.
Meanwhile, as highlighted in the February 2025 analysis by AroniSmart™ Team, Big Tech Companies have been engaged on the road to Artificial Intelligence, focusing on Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) and improving their Machine Learning capabilities (see AroniSmart™ Tech: Race for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Among Big Tech Companies Gaining Momentum - NVIDIA, APPLE, META, ALPHABET, AMD, INTEL. Let Us Revisit AI). In Q1 2024, most of these Big Tech companies like META, APPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, INTEL, and others have continued to harvest the results.
The results of the analysis using both AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ are below:
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Dynamics and Trends in Mid Q2 2024.
The key findings highlight: Most of the stocks highlighted in early Q1 2024 analyses have continued to drive the dynamics throughout Q1 2024 and through mid-Q2 2024. Most maintained their upward trend and overall significant increase after a decline or a flat performance in the middle of January and February, and March 2024 and early April 2024 (AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ Stock Market Sentiment and NLP Analysis: Market Sentiment and Highlighted Stocks in Late Q1 2024).
Trend wise, the challenges in the first month of Q2 2024, were faced and the market dynamics fueled the upward trend in late April 2024 and continued the momentum in May 2024.
The insights below are based on the data as of May 17, 2024. AroniSmart™ team will continue to update detailed analyses.
Fig 1-a: AroniSmartInvest Modules
Fig 1 -b: AroniSmartIntelligence Modules
Fig 2-a: Market Segments
Fig 2-b: Market Profile, Positivity, and Stocks to Watch
Fig 3-a:Market Profile: Positivity, Stocks to Watch, Tags, Short Term, Long, Reversal Growth Stocks
Fig 3-e: Market and Stock Segmentation
Fig 3-f: Market Profile and Sentiment - Key Stocks to Watch and Tags
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Statisticians, Data Scientists, Business and Financial Analysts, Savvy Investors, Engineers, Researchers, Students, Teachers, Economists, Political Analysts, and most of the practitioners use Advanced Analytics to answer questions, to support informed decision making or to learn.
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Fig 4-a: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch A - D
Fig 4-b: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch D - P
Fig 4-c: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch P - X
NLP Sentiment Analysis: Key Word Tags
Fig 5-a: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags A - D
Fig 5-b: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags D - H
Fig 5-c: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags H - N
Fig 5-d: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags N - S
Bayesian Modeling and NLP analysis: Stocks to Watch and High, Short, and Long Term Growth Stocks
Fig 6-a: Stocks Bayesian Network View: Watch, High Performing and Short Growth
Fig 6-b: Sentiment and Tags: Some Stocks to Watch and Key Tags Sentiment - Rectangular View
Fig 6-c: Sentiment and Tags: Positivity and Some Stocks to Watch - Circular View.
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
For more on AroniSmartIntelligence and AroniSmartInvest capabilities, visit AroniSoft web site by clicking here. AroniSmartInvest™ and AroniSmartIntelligence ™ are available on Apple's App Store.
©2024 AroniSoft LLC
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GET ARONISMARTINTELLIGENCE™ on App Store
AroniSmartIntelligence™, the leading tool for Advanced Analytics, Machine Learning & Data Science
Statisticians, Data Scientists, Business and Financial Analysts, Savvy Investors, Engineers, Researchers, Students, Teachers, Economists, Political Analysts, and most of the practitioners use Advanced Analytics to answer questions, to support informed decision making or to learn.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ is a leading Advanced Analytics, Machine Learning and Data Science tool, with optimized cutting edge Statistics models, Econometrics, Big Data and Text Analytics.
AronismartIntelligence™ includes modules covering Machine Learning and Big Data mining, Unstructured Text Analysis, Sentiment and Emotion Analytics, Bayesian Statistics and other advanced analytics.
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