U.S. stocks rallied on Monday Oct 3, 2022. The rally followed a disappointing Q3 2022, in which stocks experienced erratic downtrend seesaw movements, full of volatility complicated by a mix of high expectations and deep disappointments. The dynamics were mostly driven by rising inflation, Federal Reserve Bank's interest policies, and international events, including the war in Ukraine and its impact on the world economy. On October 3, 2022 AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the NLP, Text and Sentiment Analysis, Machine Learning, Data Science, Time Series and Support Vector Machine capabilities and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartInvest ™ and AroniSmartIntelligence™ tools, looked at the stock market news and trends. From the latest analysis, the team came up with insights and highlights on key stocks and the market sentiment driving the dynamics of the stock market by at the beginning of Q4 2022.
Key Insights based on AroniSmart Analysis
Since mid-Q2 2022, the stock market has been experiencing swing slide seesaw dynamics. After the high volatility mixed with some positive trends in July 2022, positive trends were observed in August 2022. On August 13, 2022, AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the NLP, Text and Sentiment Analysis, Machine Learning, Data Science, Time Series and Support Vector Machine capabilities and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartInvest ™ and AroniSmartIntelligence™ tools, looked at the stock market news and trends. The analysis showed that by mid-Q3 2022 the dynamics had changed, with positive trends and improvements of all key market indices, except Crude Oil. On September 21, 2022 AroniSmart™ team updated the analysis and came up with insights and highlights on key stocks and the market sentiment driving the dynamics of the stock market towards the end of Q3 2022.
In the first 3 quarters of 2022, the three major indices registered heavy and increasing losses. The consecutive losses for S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were a first since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, whereas for the Dow Jones, since 2015.
On Monday October 3, 2022, as the Q4 2022 started, the three stocks benchmark indices recorded soaring performances: S&P 500 index jumped 92.81 or 2.59%; Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 765.38 points, or 2.66%; while the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite increased 239.82 or 2.66%. All three indices experienced their best days in last three months, if not more.
The gains came after a challenging 3rd quarter, but most importantly the worsening performance in September 2022.
In September, the S&P 500 lost 9.61% and 6.27% for the quarter, DJI 8.28% and 7.63% and the Nasdaq Composite 9.7% for the month and 4.96% for the quarter.
Other indices also registered significant gains:
Crude Oil Nov 22 (CL=F), Gold Dec 22 (GC=F) and Silver Dec 22 (SI=F) all went up, respectively by +4.77%, +2.14%, +9.04%.
The oil prices were fueled by the reports about OPEC looking into significantly cutting oil production.
With the new performances, expectations for a better Q4 have been fueled. Unlike Q3 2022, the companies's technicals and fundamentals, including earnings, along with the US mid-term elections may be the drivers of the performance in Q4 2022.
The previous analyses had highlighted the probability of a market stabilization over Summer, despite persistent deep uncertainties and the fears of a recession. The trends observed in August and early September analyses appeared to validate the probabilities of temporary stabilization. Hover, the analysis towards the end of September pointed to many issues found based on the sentiment analysis using the Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning and data science.
For example, negative sentiment words such as tip of iceberg, repress, bankrupt, mislead, meltdown, hang, catastroph, greed, disappoint, etc... weighted heavy and highlighted the challenges faced by investors and consumers, especially with persistent inflation and dire world events.
On the positive sentiment side, words like boost, bolster, progress, talent, work, sustain, support, gain, cheap, etc.. pointed to the Federal Reserve Bank and government policies targeting inflation.
In the latest analysis, the sentiment analysis has highlighted the following words tags in the cloud:
Positive tags: approv, bargain, boost, bloom, calm, celebr, empower, enthusiast, extraordin, happ, gold, legen, olive branch, overtake, robust, sharp, smooth, superior, tough, trust, winner
Negative tags: agress, bankrupt, crash, drag, exhaust, harassm, hustler, meager, opposit, retreat, revenge, stubborn, syndrom, symptom, unsettle, volatil, wreak, wrest.
The positive tags appear to be shifting towards a more upbeat sentiment pointing the focus on company earnings, moving beyond inflation and persistence.
Negative tags still show that the recovery may be slow.
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As an example, below are three examples of the analysis as of the start of Q4, 2022:
Figure a: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks - October 03 2022 - Stocks Segmentation: Changes in prices and technicals.
Figure b: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analyisis Stocks and Word Tags and Positivity, October 3, 2022
Figure c: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Tags and Sample Stocks to Watch October 3, 2022
Below is a sample of the results from the analysis towards the end of Sep 2022. Then, AroniSmart stock segment analysis showed that, for all the segments, the following changes were negative: changes from 52 week high, changes from 50 days, and changes from 200 days.
Findings from AroniSmartIntelligence and AroniSmartInvest on Q3 2022.
Below are the key stocks highlighted and expected to weight heavily on investment decisions and the associated sentiment analysis results.
Figure 1: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis and Stocks - September 21 2022 - Market Profile for AZN
Figure 2: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks - September 21 2022 - Stocks Segmentation: Changes in prices and technicals.
Figure 3: Market Profile: High Performing and Short Growth Stocks - Sample
Figure 4 : AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis and Word Tags - September 21 2022
Figure 5: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analyisis Stocks and Word Tags and Positivity - September 21 2022
Figure 6: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks to Watch A - E - September 21 2022
Figure 7: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks to Watch E - N - September 21 2022
Figure 8: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks to Watch N - Z - September 21 2022
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
For more on AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ capabilities, visit AroniSoft web site by clicking here. AroniSmartInvest™ and AroniSmartIntelligence ™ are available on Apple's App Store.
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