Since mid-Q2 2022, the stock market has been experiencing swing slide seesaw dynamics. After the high volatility mixed with some positive trends observed in July 2022, positive trends were observed in August 2022. On August 13, 2022, AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the NLP, Text and Sentiment Analysis, Machine Learning, Data Science, Time Series and Support Vector Machine capabilities and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartInvest ™ and AroniSmartIntelligence™ tools, looked at the stock market news and trends. The analysis showed that by mid-Q3 2022 the dynamics had changed, with positive trends and improvements of all key market indices, except Crude Oil. On September 21, 2022 AroniSmart™ team updated the analysis. From the latest analysis, the team has come up with insights and highlights on key stocks and the market sentiment driving the dynamics of the stock market by towards the end of Q3 2022.
Key Insights based on AroniSmart Analysis
The volatility of the stock market has persisted, negatively impacting trends and both national and worldwide events and economic situation have continued to drive the market dynamics, with all the key indices with significant negative trends. Hence, the dynamics observed mid-Q3 2022 with positive trends and improvements of all key market indices, except Crude Oil have been erased. As in previous analyses, the dynamics observed since late Q1 2022 - early Q2 2022 continue to be the main drivers of the persistent, and recently worsening, volatility of the stock market. The factors captured in the Machine Learning of sentiment analysis remain the persistent inflation, Federal Reserve Bank interest rates policies, Russia-Ukraine war, the worries about China's economy, and the projected economic performance of major corporations. In the new analysis, the data on the softening inflation appears not to positively affect the stock market. The major drivers are the expected impact of Federal Reserve Bank interest rates policies, China's economy and energy worries in Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
The insights based on the latest analysis are telling. The sentiment positivity has worsened, the Federal reserves actions on interest rates, despite the seemingly positive effects on inflation, appear to have fueled the overall worries about an potential upcoming recession. Another rise of .75% on Sep 21, 2022 has fueled the speculations. The latest rate hike has brought the Federal Reserve Bank ’s benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, to a new range of 3.0% to 3.25% from a current range between 2.25% and 2.5%. The new range is the highest level since 2008.
The dynamics in the stock market have negatively impacted all the stock market indices. In one month, the indices have peformed as follows:
- S&P 500(^GSPC): -10.37%
- DOW 30 (^DJI): -10.45%
- NASDAQ (^IXIC): -11.69%
- RUSSELL 2000 (^RUT): -9.97%
- Crude Oil Nov 22 (CL=F): - 14.46%
- Gold Dec 22 (GC = F): -3.72%
From early July 2022 to mid-August, the U.S. stock prices seemed to persist on a momentous bounce back, after historical losses, despite some periods of being dragged down. Then, by September 2022, the U.S. stock prices had gone on a declining slide. The previous analyses by AroniSmart Team highlighted the fact that, until recently, the stock market bottom reached in 2020 was believed to be the worst, before, at some point, the U.S. stocks experienced historical weekly losses, with Dow Jones suffering the longest losing streak in recent history, apparently the worst since 1932. The latest dynamics continue to remind the history.
The previous analyses had highlighted the probability of a market stabilization over Summer, despite persistent deep uncertainties and the fears of a recession. The trends observed in August and early Sept analyses showed appeared to validate probabilities of temporary stabilization. Hence the latest performances pointed to many issues found based on the sentiment analysis using the Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning and data science. For example, negative sentiment words such as tip of iceberg, repress, bankrupt, mislead, meltdown, hang, catastroph, greed, disappoint, etc... weighting heavy and highliting the challenges faced by investors and consumers, especially with persistent inflation and world events.
On the positive sentiment side, words like boost, bolster, progress, talent, work, sustain, support, gain, cheap, etc.. point to the Federal Reserve Bank and government policies targeting inflation.
At the same time, as predicted in an analysis on Apple Stock, before the latest Fall event held on Sept 7, 2022 (see here: Apple's Fall 2022 Event: Analysts Bullish as Apple is Expected to Unveil New iPhone Models and Other Products).
), the stock has remained resilient, despite seesaw movements, even during single days, validating the bullish view of stock market analysts on Apple’s outlook, with some analysts maintaining Apple stock in "Buy", "Strong Buy" or "Keep", projecting that the demand for Apple products will likely remain strong into next year.
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As in the analysis as of early July 2022, AroniSmart stock segment analysis show that, for all the segments, the following changes are currently negative: changes from 52 week high, changes from 50 days, and changes from 200 days.
Findings from AroniSmartIntelligence and AroniSmartInvest.
Below are the key stocks highlighted and expected to weight heavily on investment decisions and the associated sentiment analysis results.
Figure 1: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis and Stocks - September 21 2022 - Market Profile for AZN
Figure 2: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks - September 21 2022 - Stocks Segmentation: Changes in prices and technicals.
Figure 3: Market Profile: High Performing and Short Growth Stocks - Sample
Figure 4 : AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis and Word Tags - September 21 2022
Figure 5: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analyisis Stocks and Word Tags and Positivity - September 21 2022
Figure 6: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks to Watch A - E - September 21 2022
Figure 7: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks to Watch E - N - September 21 2022
Figure 8: AroniSmartIntelligence Sentiment Analysis Stocks to Watch N - Z - September 21 2022
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
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