AroniSmartIntelligence™ in Action: Apple (AAPL) Stock Performance Support Vector Machine and Dominance Analysis

AroniSmartIntelligence Support Vector Machine Analysis of Apple Close Drivers

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Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL) has delivered strong returns in 2019 and 2020. Year-to-date, Apple stock price has risen by 28%.   From  July 2019, Apple stock price has risen by 87%.  AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the Machine Learning Time Series capabilities  and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartIntelligence™,  has looked at the trends of AAPL vs other 13  companies and came up with insights and  projections on the dynamics.  

 A little bit of the usual investment research before coming back to AroniSmart™'s findings.


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Apple Momentum

  Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL)  has consistenly delivered strong returns since 2017. Since the last deep analysis of AAPL stock by AroniSmart team in November 2017 (see: AroniSmart: AroniSmartInvest In Action: Apple Stock Shoots Up Following Solid Financial Results and iPhone X Launch), Apple stock has increased by more than 240%.  Over  this year, AoniSmart Sentiment Analysis has shown that Apple's momentum has been fueled by new products and solutions (see:  AroniSmart Tech News here  and Apple's WWDC 2020: Apple Silicon, iOS 14, iPadOS 14, App Clips, macOS 11.0 and see: AroniSmartIntelligence™ in Action: Market Sentiment and Key Stocks in May 2020)

New Products at Apple

Since 2017, Apple has heavily invested in new technologies and products.

On  March  25, 2019 Apple kicked off "It's show time" event at the Steve Jobs Theater on the company's Apple Park campus. During the events, 4 major offerings were unveiled: Apple tv+, Apple News+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card.

In the week of June 3, 2019 Apple unveiled  major technologies and offerings, including  a new  Mac Pro, a new version of MacOS named Catalina, Catalyst,  to improve portability of apps between Mac OS and iOS, iOS13 version,  and iPadOS.

During “By Innovation Only” event held at Steve Jobs Theater on Sep 10, 2019 Apple introduced the iPhone 11, 11 Pro, and 11 Pro Max, as well as the Apple Watch Series 5. The three new iPhones included the high-end flagship iPhone 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max with Triple-Lens Rear Cameras. iPhone 11 comes with Dual-Lens Rear Camera, Dolby Atmos sound, a faster A13 Bionic chip, and six New Color

In the week of June 22, 2020 Apple kicked off its annual developers' conference, WWDC 2020, at the Steve Jobs Theater on the company's Apple Park campus. Unlike the prior years, this year's WWDC was without a live audience. During the event, major technologies and offerings were unveiled, including Apple Silicon, iOS 14, iPadOS 14, App Clips, watchOS 7, tvOS and macOS 11.0.

Hence over the last years, AAPL has consistently outperformed several technology companies and other stocks. 

AroniSmart™ team  analyzed Apple's performance dynamics, leveraging the Support Vector Machine  and Dominance Analysis  capabilities  of  AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered interesting insights. The team analyzed the performance of AAPL vs 13 other internally  selected stocks  from  July 2019 to July 2020.

AroniSmartLytics™ Analysis: Apple behaves like several stocks, but not the same

Based on the analysis, it was found that most of these stocks basically follow similar trends. Also, they are all impacted by the market conditions. However, the analysis found important nuances. 

Key findings started with a positive view:  most of the stocks had an upward momentum over the period. However, like the general stock market, they faced a slowdown and high volatility in Q1-Q2 2020 before starting a bounce back. Trendwise, since  May  2020, the stocks have been on a catching up journey  reaching the previous price levels.

TrainingData Future Estimate date 2020 07 17

 

Figure 1: Key Stocks Price Trends  before the end of March 2020

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Figure 2: Key Stocks Price Trends Since April  2020

By the july  of 2020  most stocks had basically back to or above the previous levels. In  Q1 2020,  Apple's momentum was significantly impacted by the market conditions, but in late May 2020, it bounced back (see chart below). Since then, the Apple stock has mainitend the  momentum.

TrainingData Step Forecast date 2020 07 17

Figure 3: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Between July 2019 and March 2020

TestData Step Estimate date 2020 07 17

Figure 4: Apple Stock Price Trends and AroniSmart Projections Analysis Between April 2020 and July 2020

 AroniSmartLytics™ modelling (see results on the Apple Close Price Drivers screen shot ), shows the prices of the stocks that  appear to mirror each other: a high opening for  the stocks that tends to lead a decline or slow down in  Apple's closing price and a high opening for  the stocks that tends to lead an increase or growth in  Apple's closing price.  Q2-Q4 2019 and Q2 - Jul 2020 dynamics appear to positively impact Apple's prices, whereas Q1 has been challenging.

Apple (AAPL) appears  to build  a momentum similar to that of MSFT, BAC, HD, LOW, WORK  and to some extent TWTR and GOOG. At the same time, the upside of Apple appears not to align with the prices of NFLX, WMT, MRNA, and TSLA.

HistoricalQuotes_AAPL_2020-07-SVM_Weights.png

 

AroniSmartLytics™ Dominance Analysis confirms Support Vector Machine results: Apple momentum explained by momentum of other stocks.

AroniSmart™ team  analyzed Apple's performance dynamics, Dominance Analysis  capabilities  of  AroniSmartIntelligence™ and uncovered i insights confirming the performance dynamics of AAPL vs 13 other internally  selected stocks  from  July 2019 to July 2020. See below:

HistoricalQuotes_AAPL_2020-07_Dominance_Analysis.png

More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.


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