Experts Report on Assassination of Juvenal Habyarimana, a Double Edged Sword for Rwandan President Paul Kagame

by AfroAmerica Network on January 13, 2012

The long awaited report on the April 6, 1994 shooting down of the plane carrying the Rwandan and Burundian presidents Juvenal Habyarimana and Cyprien Ntaryamira and their staff was published earlier this week. The report by experts appointed by the French Judges French Judges Marc Trevin and Nathalie Poux (see our article here) has pointed to the fact that the missiles that shot down the plane may have been fired from three positions around the Kanommbe International Airport, located in the zone that was controlled by the Rwandan government forces, known as FAR. The most accepted version to date was that the missiles were fired from a close area of Masaka, which is adjacent to Kanombe. The widely publicized report has raised more questions than answers, with three camps emerging:

Those who adamantly believe that the current Rwandan military junta, then the Rwandan Patriotic Army has shot down the plane. This group, mostly composed of Rwandan exiles, and Rwandan opposition groups appear not to care about the report and its conclusions. Their argument appears to be that the issue is not where the missiles were shot from, but who fired the missiles.

Those who adamantly affirm that the missiles were fired by the then Rwandan government forces, FAR in a coup attempt. This group is mostly composed by the Rwandan Patriotic Front members and supporters.

Those who believe that the expert report is just a tip of the iceberg of what really happened and was used as a teaser by the French judges, for more surprises to come.

The last version, which appears to be the most reasonable, was confirmed by AfroAmerica Sources close to the French prosecution.

Immediately after the publication of the report, Rwandan President General Paul Kagame, the main suspect in the assassination, his government, and his supporters were quick to claim vindication. Media close to the Rwandan regime and regime pundits lent a loud voice, praising the French Judges for uncovering the truth and being unbiased and thoroughly objective and methodical.
However, AfroAmerica Network sources said that the quick reaction by Rwanda President Paul Kagame and his allies may turn out to be a serious blunder once the trials start. In fact, the sources add that whoever read too much in the report may have been mistaken and the media campaign unleashed by the Rwandan Government to praise the report and the French judges may soon haunt them.

The analysis is based on several facts including:

The expert report is just that: an expert opinion. The judges will include the opinion in other testimonies and weigh them against evidences. The conclusion may depend more on other testimonies, especially from direct witnesses and concrete evidences. Although the judges may decide to reject the report, the most likely scenario is that the report will be used to confirm one or the other theory.

The judges may use the report to confirm their independence and fairness, in preparation for convicting him and his associates. Once the French judges have shown their objectivity, fairness and independence, they can start the trials and the Rwandan government will not have a legitimate justification to reject the results of the trials and the final judgment. By getting the Rwandan President General Paul Kagame, the Ugandan Government and the international media to swear on the experts’s objectivity and French judges’ fairness, that goal may have been reached beyond expectation.

According to AfroAmerica Network sources, the French judges have overwhelming evidences and testimonies that a Rwandan Patriotic Army commando shot down the plane, using the missiles bought from the Soviet Union by Ugandan army and officially stolen, but likely given in covert action, from the Ugandan army arsenal by the Rwandan Patriotic Army:

The Sources confirm that the French Judges have the testimonies from Ugandan top military officers and government officials who confirmed the purchase from the Soviet Union and the theft by the RPA.

French judges have also testimonies from the Soviet Union confirming the sale of the missiles to Ugandan Army.

Finally, the French judges have overwhelming testimonies, some hearsay but mostly from direct witnesses who confirmed that an infiltrated RPF commando working with operatives shot down the plane. Whether the shots came from Masaka or Kanombe remains a matter of discussion. What is sure is that the leftovers were uncovered on a farm in Masaka, which is adjacent to Kanombe and that the plane almost fell vertically from the sky.

Hence, if and when the trials start and judgment is made, will it be clear whether General Paul Kagame and his Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA) have made a strategic legal mistake of embracing the objectivity of the experts’ s report and the French judges too soon.